Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS64 KEWX 222349
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
549 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue this
  afternoon for the eastern two-thirds of South Central Texas.

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected for much
  of the work week over the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains,
  and Hill Country.

- Cool to start the week with patchy freezes Monday morning in the
  Hill Country, followed by unseasonable warmth midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Winds remain breezy this afternoon particularly east of I-35 as a
decently well-mixed boundary layer folds in northeasterly low-
level momentum along the east edge of a narrow high pressure area.
The pressure gradient evens out this evening as that high
pressure moves south and east, so expect winds to diminish
tonight. Upper-level cirrus could dampen more aggressive rates of
radiational cooling, but otherwise light winds and a dry
atmosphere will support overnight lows in the 30s for most of
South-Central Texas along with some freezes mainly in the Hill
Country.

The rear edge of this cooler airmass will still be in the area
Monday, so temperatures Monday afternoon should remain on the cooler
side of the seasonal average despite ample sunshine. For most, highs
in the mid 60s are forecast Monday, while the return of
southeasterly flow over the Rio Grande Plains should allow more of a
warmup into the upper 60s to near 70. Low dew points and good
mixing will bring relative humidity values below 20% for most of
our area Monday afternoon. Temperatures remain cool Monday night
into Tuesday morning, though the departure of the airmass and the
spread of southerly flow will shift lows up into the upper 30s to
low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Pressure falls over the Central Plains and the eventual development
of a surface low in the Texas Panhandle will contribute to a
tightening pressure gradient and intensification of southerly flow
across South-Central Texas. Breezy conditions area-wide will likely
materialize, though the renewed supply of Gulf moisture along this
flow will help to slightly blunt fire weather impacts. A warming
trend will be more noticeable by Tuesday afternoon as the eastern
flanks of a low-level thermal ridge start to ease into the area,
with highs Tuesday in the 70s expected.

The low-pressure system drops farther south and east over North-
Central Texas on Wednesday as broad troughing impinges slightly on
subtropical ridging centered over the Baja California. Westerly to
southwesterly flow wrapping into the low will advect a substantially
warmer airmass, leading to much warmer than average highs in the 80s
to low 90s. Those winds will also help pull the dry line into the
area and reintroduce fire weather concerns mainly along and west of
I-35 Wednesday afternoon. A dry polar front then arrives during the
day Thursday. The bulk of the colder air associated with that front
looks to be siphoned off into the Midwest, so temperatures should
still remain above normal post-front. With temperatures remaining
warm with continued dry air and likely some breezy post-frontal
flow, fire weather concerns could be near-critical for much of South-
Central Texas Thursday. No rain is anticipated with this front.

High pressure arriving behind the late-week front should ease winds
temporarily Friday, though southerly flow returns by Saturday and
shores up humidity levels across the region. Temperatures are
expected to stay unseasonably warm this upcoming weekend. There are
some ensembles signals of another cooler airmass spilling south over
the Plains along a stronger front to open March, though confidence
at this range is very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR flight conditions maintain through the period. The northerly
to northeasterly breezes subside within the first few hours of the
TAF period with speeds then trending of around 5 kts through the
overnight. Wind speeds will pick up the most Monday along the Rio
Grande, including KDRT, with gusts up to 20 to 25 kt. Locations
farther east towards the I-35 corridor, should only see a slight
bump up in winds. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly with
time as well. Some high clouds move through tonight before
completely clearing into and through the day on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through 4 PM for areas
along and east of I-35. Locally near-critical fire weather
conditions continue within this area. Lighter flow prevails
elsewhere, but persistent low RH values will nonetheless support
locally elevated fire weather concerns. Winds lessen this evening
as high pressure moves across South-Central Texas. Dry air
lingers into Monday as breezy 10-15 mph southeast winds return to
the Rio Grande, with lighter east winds elsewhere. Near-critical
fire weather conditions are possible Monday along the Rio Grande
and across Val Verde County into Edwards County. More humidity is
expected Tuesday into Tuesday night with a transition to southerly
flow areawide. Dry and breezy conditions return between Wednesday
and Friday as unseasonable warmth arrives. South winds returning
Friday will bring moisture and help to reduce fire weather
concerns over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              37  65  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  32  65  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     35  65  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            34  62  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           40  68  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        32  63  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             33  66  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        33  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   34  64  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       37  65  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           38  66  41  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62