Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

625
FXUS64 KEWX 271045
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (20 to 30%) for showers and thunderstorms today with
  locally heavy downpours and isolated gusty winds possible.

- Near seasonable late July and early August temperatures and heat
  indices for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

An inverted trough is still noted on water vapor imagery, centered
over northern Mexico. This will continue to spark off showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. There are some lingering showers
over the Rio Grande Plains early this morning, but the expectation is
for those to weaken over the next couple hours. The moisture aloft
with this disturbance will start to slide west, as drier air under a
strengthening subtropical ridge moves into the region late Sunday and
early Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain a possibility, particularly over the Coastal Plains Sunday
afternoon as the seabreeze ramps up in the afternoon hours. Cloud
cover should keep high temperatures down a couple degrees once again,
but it will still be humid, with highs in the lower to middle 90s and
heat indices in the 100-107 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

On Tuesday, Subtropical ridging builds over northern Texas, sending
high temperatures closer to the century mark for the majority of the
long term forecast period. By midweek, global models indicate some
sort of disturbance developing on the eastern periphery of this high
and sliding west-southwestward into southeast Texas by Thursday
afternoon. There is a bit more consensus on this tropical disturbance
than there was at this time 24 hours ago, so confidence is slowly
increasing in the chance for rain and storms as early as Wednesday
evening. Temperatures will remain quite hot despite the increased
chance at rain, so any storm that forms could collapse and result in
some gusty winds in addition to the brief heavy downpours. This
disturbance/inverted trough will keep our weather pattern active
heading into the start of August, and so far this summer, it really
hasn`t been all that hot. In fact, up to this point, none of our 4
primary long term climate sites are in the top 30 warmest summers on
record. It`s been a relatively average summer temperature-wise. All
of the rain we`ve seen in the first 2 weeks of July and our active
end to June are to blame. Expect a more summertime feel despite the
threat of showers and storms Wednesday-Saturday as sinking air and
the influence of high pressure to our north will keep things hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

SHRA/TSRA are possible today, however PROBs of impacts to the sites
are too low to mention. Forecasters will monitor trends for possible
updates. Areas of MVFR CIGs lift to VFR by midday, then return
overnight. S to SE winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  76  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  75  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  74  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  77  97  76 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  75  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  75  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  75  96  73 /  30   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  77  96  74 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77  98  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...04